And in modern America, one of the groups that people have most intensely hitched their identities to is their political party.
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And that was even before well, you know. In the past couple of years, fake news stories perfectly crafted to appeal to one party or the other have proliferated on social media, convincing people that the Pope had endorsed Trump or that Rage Against the Machine was reuniting for an anti-Trump album. You could hear the dissonance humming within them. We had a year of watching with interest as Republicans struggled to resolve this.
The many things that, during the campaign, might have seemed to render Trump unelectable— boasting about sexual assault , encouraging violence at his rallies , attacking an American-born judge for his Mexican heritage —did not ultimately cost him the support of the majority of his party. Republican commentators and politicians even decried Trump as not a true conservative.
But he was the Republican nominee, and he rallied the Republican base. Information becomes tribal. High levels of knowledge make someone more likely to engage in motivated reasoning—perhaps because they have more to draw on when crafting a counterargument. And media coverage makes that worse.
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For example, Democrats are overwhelmingly supportive of bills to ban the chemical BPA from household products, even though the FDA and many scientific studies have found it is safe at the low levels currently used. Fact-checking erroneous statements made by politicians or cranks may also be ineffective. They don't matter enough as a voter to determine the outcome on policies or anything like this.
It was a year when the winning presidential candidate lied almost constantly on the campaign trail, when fake news abounded, and when people cocooned themselves thoroughly in social-media spheres that only told them what they wanted to hear. Is the present moment really so different, or do the stakes just feel higher? Partisanship has surely ramped up—but Americans have been partisan before, to the point of civil war. This is hardly the first time there have been partisan publications, or many competing outlets, or even information silos.
People often despair at the loss of the midth-century model, when just a few newspapers and TV channels fed people most of their unbiased news vegetables. But in the 19th century, papers were known for competing for eyeballs with sensational headlines , and in the time of the Founding Fathers, Federalist and Republican papers were constantly sniping at each other. Not everyone, however, agrees that the silos exist. And the belief kind of disappears. But as a community gets larger, the likelier it is that a person can find someone else who shares their strange belief.
In areas where you lack expertise, you have to rely on trust. The problem is that who and what people trust to give them reliable information is also tribal. In the United States, people are less generally trusting of each other than they used to be. This fuels tribalism.
So people high on the particularized-trust scale would be more likely to believe information that comes from others in their groups, and if those groups are ideological, the people sharing that information probably already agree with them. And so it spirals. Not that news articles are never biased, but a hypothetical perfectly evenhanded piece of journalism, that fairly and neutrally represented all sides would still likely be seen as biased by people on each side.
Because, Manjoo writes, everyone thinks their side has the best evidence, and therefore if the article were truly objective, it would have emphasized their side more. Objectivity is a valiant battle, but sometimes, a losing one. The experiment where Trump supporters were asked about the inauguration photos is one example. But what does it mean if a person agrees with the statement? These are more often disputes over values, Kahan says, about what kind of society people want and which group or politician aligns with that. So what would get someone to change their mind about a false belief that is deeply tied to their identity?
But of course there are areas where facts can make a difference. There are people who are just mistaken or who are motivated to believe something false without treasuring the false belief like a crown jewel. There are small things that could help. And in the study at least, it worked. So much of how people view the world has nothing to do with facts. They have to change their own. As previously noted, Daniel Shaw ultimately left Siddha Yoga. But it took a long time. As Manjoo noted in his book, when the U.
And groups are usually better at coming up with the correct answers to reasoning tasks than individuals are.
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Of course, the wisdom of groups is probably diminished if everyone in a group already agrees with each other. The college-admissions process is so fraught with hysteria, many parents attempt to cheat their kids into elite institutions. As the impeachment inquiry intensifies, some associates of the president predict that his already erratic behavior is going to get worse. The country is entering a new and precarious phase, in which the central question about President Donald Trump is not whether he is coming unstrung, but rather just how unstrung he is going to get.
The boiling mind of Trump has spawned a cottage industry for cognitive experts who have questioned whether he is, well, all there.
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But as the impeachment inquiry barrels ahead on Capitol Hill, several associates of the president, including former White House aides, worry that his behavior is likely to get worse. Angered by the proceedings, unencumbered by aides willing to question his judgment, and more and more isolated in the West Wing, Trump is apt to lash out more at enemies imagined and real, these people told me.
Conduct that has long been unsettling figures to deteriorate as Trump comes under mounting stress. Mick Mulvaney's job was in danger even before his disastrous press conference yesterday, and his equally disastrous attempt to walk that performance back. The fumble could not have been more poorly timed: According to multiple current and former White House officials, many of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to relay private conversations, Trump has been steadily souring on Mulvaney for weeks.
The unicorn massacre unfolding today is exactly the opposite of what happened in Both then and now , consumer-tech companies spent lavishly on advertising and struggled to find a path to profit.
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Both then and now , companies that bragged about their ability to change the world admitted suddenly that they were running out of money. Both then and now , the valuations of once-heralded tech enterprises were halved in a matter of weeks. Both then and now , there was a widespread sense of euphoria curdling into soberness, washed down with the realization that thousands of workers in once-promising firms were poised to lose their jobs. Our unpredictable and overburdened schedules are taking a dire toll on American society.
Just under a century ago, the Soviet Union embarked on one of the strangest attempts to reshape the common calendar that has ever been undertaken. As Joseph Stalin raced to turn an agricultural backwater into an industrialized nation, his government downsized the week from seven to five days. Saturday and Sunday were abolished. In place of the weekend, a new system of respite was introduced in The government divided workers into five groups, and assigned each to a different day off.
On any given day, four-fifths of the proletariat would show up to their factories and work while the other fifth rested. Each laborer received a colored slip of paper—yellow, orange, red, purple, or green—that signified his or her group. On a third-down play last season, the Washington Redskins quarterback Alex Smith stood in shotgun formation, five yards behind the line of scrimmage.
As he called his signals, a Houston Texans cornerback, Kareem Jackson, suddenly sprinted forward from a position four yards behind the defensive line. After giving birth to a baby, a young woman told her nurses at Boston Medical Center that she was having pain in her hip. That happens sometimes after births, says Ali Guermazi, one of the doctors involved. As he recounts the case from a few years ago, he looked at X-rays and saw a small amount of extra fluid in the joint. Otherwise things looked normal. All of us involved in research must find ways to remove these constraints. We face multiple challenges in doing that, especially given a changing and uncertain future climate, and a rapidly growing population that is driving increased social and economic development, globalization, and urbanization.
How best to meet these challenges requires research in all aspects of water management. Since , the journal Water Resources Research has played an important role in reporting and disseminating current research related to managing the quantity and quality and cost of this resource. This paper identifies the issues facing water managers today and future research needed to better inform those who strive to create a more sustainable and desirable future.
Throughout the world, demographic, economic, and technological trends have accelerated our ability to knowingly and unknowingly modify the environment we live in and that sustains us. We humans have become the principal driver of environmental change.
Our actions are impacting our global environment, including our climate. This in turn impacts the amounts and spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation that falls on watersheds and the timing of its runoff. Coupled with changes in landscapes, due to growth in food and energy production and from the movement of people into urban centers, we are altering the quantity and quality of our freshwater resources on which we depend to survive, both physically and economically.
We depend on water not only for life itself, but indeed for our economic wellbeing as well. Water plays a role in the creation of everything we produce.
There are no substitutes and while it is renewable there is only a finite amount of it. In the past, we have made decisions regarding the management of our water resources that have not always helped us become more secure or sustainable. We have disrupted and overallocated river flow regimes—sometimes to the point of drying them up, along with their downstream lakes.